Every month, various beauty industry analysts from The NPD Group write blogs about the latest trends being seen in beauty, based on the firm’s market information and insights. Through a partnership, Beauty Insider will publish NPD’s blog the day it’s posted to keep you in-the-know. Please see NPD’s latest post on 2019 predictions.

Social media pressures, political divides and the alleged impending recession are just a few of the stress-inducing factors causing anxiety levels to rise. It’s no wonder that gravity blankets, furry bags, comfy shoes and crystal-infused water bottles are flying off shelves. People need to collectively relax, decompress and expel negative energy. In beauty, NPD has seen stress-reducing ingredients such as adaptogens, healing crystals and CBD emerge as some of the breakout stars of 2018.

The coming year will see areas of growth within each U.S. prestige beauty category, but recession fears may slow performance of the total market as consumers make the move towards more careful consumption. Looking more broadly, NPD anticipates the coming year will show an amplification of what’s been observed to date, and the grand entrance of a not-so-new consumer.

Radicalization


With the rise of social sites exposing the ugly underbelly of beauty, and the Deciem drama that unfolded before our very eyes, extreme transparency will continue to push the boundaries of truth and “TMI.” Partisan branding emerged as a hot-button topic as retailers and brands across different industries took risky, controversial stances. Given all this intensity, it makes sense that naturals are now moving beyond formulas that are good for the skin to those that are good for the soul, touting the benefits of spiritual and medicinal ingredients. With natural skin care brands growing at twice the rate of total skin care, we expect this growth to continue.


Inspirational Retail

We are moving beyond experiential retail into the realm of inspirational retail. Retail environments are moving beyond ‘Instagrammable’ moments to community spaces with coffee shops, lounges and even mini movie theatres incorporated into the selling space. While some stores are permanent, many are pop-ups, which have grown exponentially in number based on observations in the New York market alone. The largest DMA in beauty, New York brings in 10 percent of total industry volume in the country. Creating these experiences in the most profitable locations is vital to success.

Gen Z Arrives
Millennials need to make room for the new kid in town. Gen Z accounts for over $44 billion in annual spending and is poised to become the largest generation of consumers as soon as next year. Wellness and social responsibility are important to them. This generation will drive continued change across major industry platforms like gender neutrality, inclusivity, diversity, sustainability and transparency, and that change will be fueled by technology. Reaching this consumer requires aligning authentically to their values. NPD expects overall growth in the coming year, but with so much uncertainty and consumer anxiety, pockets of beauty will likely stumble in the year ahead. But, beauty is a strong and resilient industry with definitive staying power. In this environment it has become increasingly important for brands to be thoughtful, authentic and purposeful. So “stay calm” and connected with consumers, as NPD anticipates growth to come from products, brands and retailers that provide an escape from everyday stressors.